Property at Risk from Rising Seas, by Congressional District

This series of maps identifies the number of US homes at risk from chronic flooding over the coming decades due to sea level rise for every coastal Congressional district in the Lower 48.

You can move and zoom the map to your area of interest. Click on any district for more detailed information, including links to district-specific fact sheets.

You can also learn more about how to use the map, including ways to ensure congressional candidates are aware of this information.

The initial map shows the number of homes potentially at risk from chronic flooding in 2045, a time frame within the lifetime of a 30-year mortgage issued today. For this analysis, chronic flooding is defined to be flooding that occurs 26 times or more per year, a level of disruption also referred to as chronic inundation.

Swipe or scroll down to explore more of what's at risk, including total current property value, estimated population, and annual property tax contribution associated with at-risk homes.

Data is drawn from the analyses Underwater: Rising Seas, Chronic Floods, and the Implications for US Coastal Real Estate (2018) and When Rising Seas Hit Home: Hard Choices Ahead for Hundreds of US Coastal Communities (2017).

At risk from rising seas

Click the buttons to see what's at risk from chronic inundation (high-tide flooding that occurs 26 or more times per year).

In 2045

Homes Value Population Tax Base

In 2100

Homes Value Population Tax Base

This scenario assumes a high rate of sea level rise caused by a continued rise in global carbon emissions and an increasing loss of land ice. In this scenario, global average sea level is projected to rise about 2 feet by 2045 and about 6.5 feet by 2100.

Note that these projections do not include future development or new homes; they capture only today's homes and current property values.

With a moderate rate of sea level rise

With a more moderate rate of sea level rise, nearly 140,000 homes are still at risk of chronic inundation by 2035 and more than 1.2 million by 2100.

In 2035

Homes Value Population Tax Base

In 2100

Homes Value Population Tax Base

This scenario assumes that global carbon emissions rise through the middle of the century then begin to decline, and ice sheets melt at rates in line with historical observations. With this scenario, global average sea level is projected to rise about 1 foot by 2035 and about 4 feet by 2100.

Disclosure: Data provided by third parties through the Zillow Transaction and Assessment Dataset (ZTRAX). More information on accessing the data can be found at https://www.zillow.com/ztrax. The results and opinions presented in this report are those of the Union of Concerned Scientists and do not reflect the position of Zillow Group. For more information, see the complete disclaimer in 'About this Analysis' and at www.ucsusa.org/underwater.

Disclaimer: This research is intended to help individuals and communities appreciate when sea level rise may place existing coastal properties (aggregated by community) at risk of tidal flooding. It captures the current value and tax base contribution of those properties (also aggregated by community) and is not intended to project changes in those values, nor in the value of any specific property.

The projections herein are made to the best of our scientific knowledge and comport with our scientific and peer review standards. They are limited by a range of factors, including but not limited to the quality of property-level data, the resolution of coastal elevation models, the potential installment of defensive measures not captured by those models, and uncertainty around the future pace of sea level rise. More information on caveats and limitations can be found at www.ucsusa.org/underwater.

Neither the authors nor the Union of Concerned Scientists are responsible or liable for financial or reputational implications or damages to homeowners, insurers, investors, mortgage holders, municipalities, or other any entities. The content of this analysis should not be relied on to make business, real estate or other real world decisions without independent consultation with professional experts with relevant experience. The views expressed by individuals in the quoted text of this report do not represent an endorsement of the analysis or its results.

Correction (9/11/18): An earlier version of this map and its associated fact sheets identified Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia congressional districts as they were prior to redistricting in 2017. The map and fact sheets have been updated to reflect current district boundaries.

Property at Risk from Rising Seas, by Congressional District

This series of maps identifies the number of US homes at risk from chronic flooding over the coming decades due to sea level rise for every coastal Congressional district in the Lower 48.

You can move and zoom the map to your area of interest. Click on any district for more detailed information, including links to district-specific fact sheets.

You can also learn more about how to use the map, including ways to ensure congressional candidates are aware of this information.

Swipe or scroll down to explore more of what's at risk, including total current property value, estimated population, and annual property tax contribution associated with at-risk homes.